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Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models:...
Has just been published! It wasn’t really my intention, but somehow we never came up with a proper title so now we’re stuck with it! This paper was born out of our long visit to Hamburg a few years...
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What can we learn about the COVID fatality rate from Guayas?
Guayas is a region in Ecuador that has had a particularly tough time with COVID-19. Prompted by this Twitter post from Karsten Haustein I have done a bit of modelling… Spot on. (Un)fortunately, we have...
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Why can’t the Germans be more like us?
And now for the previous post, in reverse. Germany locked down at about the same time as the UK. Actually probably a couple of days earlier, according to Wikipedia and Flaxman et al. Picking a single...
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The EGU review
Well.. that was a very different EGU! We were supposed to be in Vienna, but that was all cancelled a while back of course. I might have felt sorry for my AirBnB host but despite Austria banning...
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Like a phoenix…
So, the fortnightly chunks in the last post were doing ok, but it’s still a bit clunky. I quickly found that the MCMC method I was using couldn’t really cope with shorter intervals (meaning more R...
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Modelling the ONS COVID data
I’ve grumbled for a while about the ONS analyses of their infection survey pilot (pilot? isn’t it a full-blown survey yet?) without doing anything about it. The purpose of this blog is to outline the...
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Modelling the ONS COVID data part 2
Continuing from previously…I have done some upgrades to the method and now have some results that I think are quite acceptable. Most importantly, after thinking about (and getting half-way to...
View ArticleScience breakthrough of the year (runner-up)
Being only a small and insignificant organisation, we would like to take this rare opportunity to blow our own trumpets. Blue Skies Research contributed to one of the runners-up in Science Magazine’s...
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EGU 2022 – how cold was the LGM (again)?
I haven’t blogged in ages but have actually done a bit of work. Specifically, I eventually wrote up my new reconstruction of the Last Glacial Maximum. We did this back in 2012/3 (see here) but since...
View ArticleRetired
As you may have noticed, there hasn’t been a lot of science getting done here recently. The basic reason for this is that we’ve decided to retire and close down Blue Skies Research Ltd. We set it up...
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